Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands
Introduction
Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services (ES) such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and climate regulation at local, regional, and global scales (Nobre, 2014). However, these unique forests and their services have been threatened by complex, interconnected driving forces such as agricultural expansion, climate variability, and forest degradation (Davidson et al., 2012, Malhi et al., 2008). Bolivia, for example, is listed among the countries with the highest net forest loss during 2000–2010 (FAO, 2010), with 50% of its territory now covered by lowland forests (Killeen et al., 2007).
Bolivian lowlands experienced intense colonization from the 1950s to the 1970s due to the migration of peasants from the Andean region (Pacheco, 2006). In the mid-1980s, the agro-industrial corporations engaged in large-scale deforestations mainly in the southwestern portion of the Bolivian Amazon, in Santa Cruz, where current deforestation converted 75% of the land for agricultural purposes (Killeen et al., 2008). More recently, international driving forces, such as the growing demand for agricultural products (mainly soybeans and beef), have been the major cause of deforestation in Bolivia as well as in other Amazonian countries (Dalla-Nora et al., 2014, Müller et al., 2012, Pacheco et al., 2010).
In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that is more respectful of the environment. The MAS party enacted the Mother Earth Law, (No. 300, of 2012), which recognizes Mother Earth's rights and the State's obligations to ensure these rights. This law also introduced a new non-market based mechanism for forest conservation, the “Joint Mitigation and Adaptation Mechanism for the Integrated and Sustainable Management of Forests and Mother Earth” (Decree 1696 of 2013). This mechanism seeks to ensure sustainable forest management through the knowledge and rights of indigenous people and to become an alternative to dominant market-based mechanisms like Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+) (Müller et al., 2014b).
MAS conservationist and production policies in Bolivia, however, have been experiencing continuous tension. The lack of governance, land tenure conflicts, and conceptual gaps limit the application of laws and regulations regarding deforestation. Thus, despite the innovative environmental and legal framework, little progress has been made in this direction (Müller et al., 2014b, Müller et al., 2013, Pacheco et al., 2010). Moreover, the application of some environmental laws and regulations contradicts the government’s aim to guarantee food production and exportation, which is increasing the expansion of the agricultural lands from 3 to 13 million ha in the next 10 years with the “13 Pillars of the Patriotic Agenda 2025” (Bolivia, 2013, Chumacero, 2012, Hoiby and Zenteno-Hopp, 2014, IBCE, 2013). A further contradiction is the construction of roads and oil exploration in protected areas (PA) and indigenous territories (IT) (Chumacero et al., 2010, Jiménez, 2013).
Understanding the deforestation processes occurring in Bolivian lowland forests, as in the rest of the world, is a challenging task. It deserves a multidisciplinary approach, as seen in the work by Aguiar (2006), Aguiar et al. (2014) and Folhes et al. (2015), that takes into account the multi-dimensional nature of this topic. Few studies have addressed the issue of deforestation in Bolivia through time and space (i.e., Mertens et al., 2004; Müller et al., 2014a, Müller et al., 2012; Sangermano et al., 2012). The lack of pertinent information such as multi-temporal land cover change (LCC) data limits the efforts in this issue because many LCC datasets have only been available since 2012.
The aim of this study is to explore an innovative modeling approach for Bolivian lowlands to simulate how the growing demand for agricultural land and different land use policies could affect future deforestation trends. This study also discusses the social and environmental implications related to different land use change scenarios based on deforestation rates and spatial pattern analyses. Ultimately, we seek to assist in the discussion of broader land use policies regarding the sustainable development of agriculture in the Bolivian forests.
Section snippets
Study area
In Bolivia, the physiography and altitude determine significant gradients in temperature, precipitation ( Fig. 2), and consequently, the rich biodiversity (Ibisch and Merida, 2004). Three main physiographic regions can be distinguished: Andean, Sub-Andean, and Lowlands. The Andean region is located at 3000 m.a.s.l. between the Western Range (Cordillera Occidental) and Central Range (Cordillera Central) and is characterized by the Altiplano (high plateau) and high peaks (Navarro and Maldonado,
Model performance
The performance of the LuccME/Bolivia model was satisfactory, with a spatial adjustment index between the observed and simulated patterns of deforestation resulting in 69% at the first level, 75% at the fifth, and 81% at the tenth level of the validation process (Fig. 5). The model effectively captures the spatial distribution of the deforestation process, especially near the previously cleared areas due to the LuccME allocation component that uses spatial lag regression. Only in the southern
Conclusions
We assessed deforestation in the Bolivian lowlands by generating a spatially-explicit land cover change model, which considers deforestation driving factors, different land demands, land policies and governance arrangements, and ran it under three scenarios until 2050: Sustainability (optimistic), Middle of the road (similar to business as usual) and Fragmentation (worst).
In the Sustainability scenario, the conservation corridor Carrasco-Amboró and large intact forest areas are preserved, even
Acknowledgements
This study is part of the Land Use and Cover Change Scenarios for the Madeira River Basin of the AMAZALERT Project 282664 founded by the European Union׳s Seventh Framework Programme. We thank the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) for Grant no. 2013/20616-6, Liliana Soria from the Noel Kempff Mercado Museum of Natural History for providing the Land Use and Cover Change Data. We also thank Daniel Larrea from the Friends of Nature Foundation (FAN) and Celso vonRandow from the Earth System
References (70)
- et al.
Spatial statistical analysis of land-use determinants in the Brazilian Amazonia: exploring intra-regional heterogeneity
Ecol. Model.
(2007) Model goodness of fit: a multiple resolution procedure
Ecol. Model.
(1989)- et al.
Why have land use change models for the Amazon failed to capture the amount of deforestation over the last decade?
Land Use Policy
(2014) - et al.
Multi-scale participatory scenario methods and territorial planning in the Brazilian Amazon
Futures
(2015) - et al.
Estimating the world’s potentially available cropland using a bottom-up approach
Glob. Environ. Change
(2013) - et al.
Spatiotemporal modeling of the expansion of mechanized agriculture in the Bolivian lowland forests
Appl. Geogr.
(2011) - et al.
Policy options to reduce deforestation based on a systematic analysis of drivers and agents in lowland Bolivia
Land Use Policy
(2013) Agricultural expansion and deforestation in lowland Bolivia: the import substitution versus the structural adjustment model
Land Use Policy
(2006)- et al.
The evolution of the timber sector in lowland Bolivia: examining the influence of three disparate policy approaches
Policy Econ.
(2010) - et al.
Modeling the spatial pattern of land-use change with GEOMOD2: application and validation for Costa Rica
Agric. Ecosyst. Environ.
(2001)