Elsevier

Environmental Research

Volume 144, Part B, January 2016, Pages 49-63
Environmental Research

Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2015.10.010Get rights and content

Highlights

  • Using LuccME we create a spatially explicit land cover change model for Bolivia.

  • We run the model under three different deforestation scenarios up to 2050.

  • We highlight deforestation impacts on biodiversity, protected areas and indigenous lands.

  • Carbon emission from deforestation scenarios might be considerable in 2050.

Abstract

Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world’s first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present–2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost all Bolivian lowlands reaching 37,944,434 ha and leaves small forest patches in a few PAs. These deforestation scenarios are not meant to predict the future but to show how current and future decisions carried out by the neo-extractivist practices of MAS government could affect deforestation and carbon emission trends. In this perspective, recognizing land use systems as open and dynamic systems is a central challenge in designing efficient land use policies and managing a transition towards sustainable land use.

Introduction

Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services (ES) such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and climate regulation at local, regional, and global scales (Nobre, 2014). However, these unique forests and their services have been threatened by complex, interconnected driving forces such as agricultural expansion, climate variability, and forest degradation (Davidson et al., 2012, Malhi et al., 2008). Bolivia, for example, is listed among the countries with the highest net forest loss during 2000–2010 (FAO, 2010), with 50% of its territory now covered by lowland forests (Killeen et al., 2007).

Bolivian lowlands experienced intense colonization from the 1950s to the 1970s due to the migration of peasants from the Andean region (Pacheco, 2006). In the mid-1980s, the agro-industrial corporations engaged in large-scale deforestations mainly in the southwestern portion of the Bolivian Amazon, in Santa Cruz, where current deforestation converted 75% of the land for agricultural purposes (Killeen et al., 2008). More recently, international driving forces, such as the growing demand for agricultural products (mainly soybeans and beef), have been the major cause of deforestation in Bolivia as well as in other Amazonian countries (Dalla-Nora et al., 2014, Müller et al., 2012, Pacheco et al., 2010).

In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that is more respectful of the environment. The MAS party enacted the Mother Earth Law, (No. 300, of 2012), which recognizes Mother Earth's rights and the State's obligations to ensure these rights. This law also introduced a new non-market based mechanism for forest conservation, the “Joint Mitigation and Adaptation Mechanism for the Integrated and Sustainable Management of Forests and Mother Earth” (Decree 1696 of 2013). This mechanism seeks to ensure sustainable forest management through the knowledge and rights of indigenous people and to become an alternative to dominant market-based mechanisms like Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+) (Müller et al., 2014b).

MAS conservationist and production policies in Bolivia, however, have been experiencing continuous tension. The lack of governance, land tenure conflicts, and conceptual gaps limit the application of laws and regulations regarding deforestation. Thus, despite the innovative environmental and legal framework, little progress has been made in this direction (Müller et al., 2014b, Müller et al., 2013, Pacheco et al., 2010). Moreover, the application of some environmental laws and regulations contradicts the government’s aim to guarantee food production and exportation, which is increasing the expansion of the agricultural lands from 3 to 13 million ha in the next 10 years with the “13 Pillars of the Patriotic Agenda 2025” (Bolivia, 2013, Chumacero, 2012, Hoiby and Zenteno-Hopp, 2014, IBCE, 2013). A further contradiction is the construction of roads and oil exploration in protected areas (PA) and indigenous territories (IT) (Chumacero et al., 2010, Jiménez, 2013).

Understanding the deforestation processes occurring in Bolivian lowland forests, as in the rest of the world, is a challenging task. It deserves a multidisciplinary approach, as seen in the work by Aguiar (2006), Aguiar et al. (2014) and Folhes et al. (2015), that takes into account the multi-dimensional nature of this topic. Few studies have addressed the issue of deforestation in Bolivia through time and space (i.e., Mertens et al., 2004; Müller et al., 2014a, Müller et al., 2012; Sangermano et al., 2012). The lack of pertinent information such as multi-temporal land cover change (LCC) data limits the efforts in this issue because many LCC datasets have only been available since 2012.

The aim of this study is to explore an innovative modeling approach for Bolivian lowlands to simulate how the growing demand for agricultural land and different land use policies could affect future deforestation trends. This study also discusses the social and environmental implications related to different land use change scenarios based on deforestation rates and spatial pattern analyses. Ultimately, we seek to assist in the discussion of broader land use policies regarding the sustainable development of agriculture in the Bolivian forests.

Section snippets

Study area

In Bolivia, the physiography and altitude determine significant gradients in temperature, precipitation ( Fig. 2), and consequently, the rich biodiversity (Ibisch and Merida, 2004). Three main physiographic regions can be distinguished: Andean, Sub-Andean, and Lowlands. The Andean region is located at 3000 m.a.s.l. between the Western Range (Cordillera Occidental) and Central Range (Cordillera Central) and is characterized by the Altiplano (high plateau) and high peaks (Navarro and Maldonado,

Model performance

The performance of the LuccME/Bolivia model was satisfactory, with a spatial adjustment index between the observed and simulated patterns of deforestation resulting in 69% at the first level, 75% at the fifth, and 81% at the tenth level of the validation process (Fig. 5). The model effectively captures the spatial distribution of the deforestation process, especially near the previously cleared areas due to the LuccME allocation component that uses spatial lag regression. Only in the southern

Conclusions

We assessed deforestation in the Bolivian lowlands by generating a spatially-explicit land cover change model, which considers deforestation driving factors, different land demands, land policies and governance arrangements, and ran it under three scenarios until 2050: Sustainability (optimistic), Middle of the road (similar to business as usual) and Fragmentation (worst).

In the Sustainability scenario, the conservation corridor Carrasco-Amboró and large intact forest areas are preserved, even

Acknowledgements

This study is part of the Land Use and Cover Change Scenarios for the Madeira River Basin of the AMAZALERT Project 282664 founded by the European Union׳s Seventh Framework Programme. We thank the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) for Grant no. 2013/20616-6, Liliana Soria from the Noel Kempff Mercado Museum of Natural History for providing the Land Use and Cover Change Data. We also thank Daniel Larrea from the Friends of Nature Foundation (FAN) and Celso vonRandow from the Earth System

References (70)

  • B.S. Soares-Filho et al.

    DINAMICA – a stochastic cellular automata model designed to simulate the landscape dynamics in an Amazonian colonization frontier

    Ecol. Model.

    (2002)
  • A. Veldkamp et al.

    CLUE-CR: an integrated multi-scale model to simulate land use change scenarios in Costa Rica

    Ecol. Model.

    (1996)
  • P.H. Verburg et al.

    A spatial explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use

    Ecol. Model.

    (1999)
  • P.H. Verburg et al.

    The role of spatially explicit models in land-use change research: a case study for cropping patterns in China

    Agric. Ecosyst. Environ.

    (2001)
  • ABC, 2010. Mapa de la Red Viaria Fundamental a junio del 2010 – Administración Boliviana de...
  • ABC, 2008. Vías Principales: Red Fundamental de Bolivia – Administración Boliviana de...
  • A.P. Aguiar

    Modelagem de mudança do uso da terra na Amazônia: explorando a heterogeneidade intraregional. Sensoriamento Remoto

    (2006)
  • Aguiar, A.P., Carneiro, T., Andrade, P.R., Assis, T., 2012a. LuccME-TerraME: an open-source framework for spatially...
  • A.P. Aguiar et al.

    Modeling the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of deforestation-driven carbon emissions: the INPE-EM framework applied to the Brazilian Amazon

    Glob. Chang. Biol.

    (2012)
  • Aguiar, A.P., Tejada, G., Assis, T., Dalla-Nora, E., 2014. Set of land-use scenarios for Brazil, linked to implications...
  • L. Anselin et al.

    Efficient algorithms for constructing proper higher order spatial lag operators

    J. Reg. Sci.

    (1996)
  • L. Anselin et al.

    GeoDa: an introduction to spatial data analysis

    Geogr. Anal.

    (2006)
  • Arnell, N., Kram, T., Carter, T., Ebi, K., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Kriegler, E., Mathur, R., O’Neill, B., Riahi,...
  • A.G.O.P. Barretto et al.

    Agricultural intensification in Brazil and its effects on land-use patterns: an analysis of the 1975–2006 period

    Glob. Chang. Biol.

    (2013)
  • Bolivia, 2013. 13 pilares de la Bolivia digna y soberana: Agenda patriótica del Bicentenario...
  • Bolivia, 2007. Nueva Constitución Política del...
  • Chumacero, J.P., 2012. ¿Comer de nuestra tierra?; estudios de caso sobre tierra y producción de alimentos en Bolivia,...
  • Chumacero, J.P., Tinta, E., Salgado, J., Vadillo, A., Colque, G., Ortiz, M. V, Calizaya, O., Costas, P., 2010. Informe...
  • CI, 2008. Mapa de Áreas Protegidas Departamentales, Municipales, y Regionales de Bolivia-Conservación...
  • Condori, I., 2013. Agro proyecta ampliar frontera agrícola hasta 15 millones de ha. Diario de circulación nacional [WWW...
  • D. Cordoba et al.

    Realigning the political and the technical: NGOs and the politicization of agrarian development in Bolivia

    Eur. J. Dev. Res.

    (2015)
  • D. Cordoba et al.

    The return of the state: neocollectivism, agrarian politics and images of technological progress in the MAS Era in Bolivia

    J. Agrar. Chang.

    (2014)
  • Corz, C., Lezcano, M., 2013. YPFB explotará petróleo y gas natural en las áreas protegidas. Diario de circulación...
  • COSIPLAN, 2011. Cartera de Proyectos Proyectos para la Integración de la Infraestructura Regional Suramericana IIRSA...
  • Cited by (0)

    View full text